Naviraiense vs Comercial MS: prediction and stats
Sul-MatogrossenseMatchday 5Kick-off on February 7, 2027 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio José Candido dos Santos, Naviraí, Mato Grosso do Sul
The Footlab AI model makes Naviraiense the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Comercial MS. The most likely score is 1-1. If Naviraiense wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,760 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Naviraiense vs Comercial MS?
Naviraiense starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (1,509 vs 1,379).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Naviraiense vs Comercial MS
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Naviraiense
Not enough data to predict the Naviraiense lineup.
Comercial MS
4-3-3- VValderlei Saldanha Araújo
- UUelison
- NNilson Diego Ferrerra
- LLucas Romeiro Alves
- AAnderson Ferreira Gibran
- SSousa
- DDavid Lopes
- LLeonardo
- JJeferson
- FFabricio Lopes de Souza
- AAdailson Martins
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 06:07 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Naviraiense have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Comercial MS have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Bataguassu(home) | 0-4 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Bataguassu(away) | 1-0 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Águia Negra(away) | 2-1 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Operario Ferroviario(home) | 0-0 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Costa Rica (away) | 1-1 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2023 | Operario Ferroviario(away) | 0-1 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Mar 11, 2023 | Costa Rica (home) | 2-2 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Mar 2, 2023 | Chapadão(home) | 0-1 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Coxim(away) | 0-0 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Feb 18, 2023 | Chapadão(away) | 1-2 | Sul-Matogrossense |
How many goals should we expect?
Naviraiense score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Comercial MS score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naviraiense | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Comercial MS | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Naviraiense | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 18 |
A question about Naviraiense vs Comercial MS?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Naviraiense vs Comercial MS?
- The Footlab AI model makes Naviraiense the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Comercial MS.
- Where and when is Naviraiense vs Comercial MS played?
- Naviraiense vs Comercial MS is played on February 7, 2027 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio José Candido dos Santos, in the Sul-Matogrossense.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.