Where and when is Newcastle United U21 vs Derby County U21 played?

Newcastle United U21 vs Derby County U21 is played on February 22, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC), in the Premier League 2 Division One.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Newcastle United U21 vs Derby County U21: prediction and stats

Premier League 2 Division OneRegular SeasonKick-off on February 22, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)

Newcastle United U21

Derby County U21

The Footlab model makes Newcastle United U21 the favourite at 48%, against 22% for a draw and 31% for Derby County U21. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Newcastle United U21 vs Derby County U21?

A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Newcastle United U21 (1,727) and Derby County U21 (1,668).

Newcastle United U21 win48 %

Draw22 %

Derby County U21 win31 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newcastle United U21 have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Derby County U21 have 5, 3 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Newcastle United U21
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 24, 2026	Tottenham Hotspur U21(home)	1-3	Premier League 2 Division One
Aug 18, 2026	Tamworth(away)	3-5	National League Cup
Apr 27, 2026	Swansea City U21(away)	0-2	Professional Development League
Apr 13, 2026	Wolves U21(home)	1-1	Premier League 2 Division One
Apr 10, 2026	Manchester United U21(away)	3-1	Premier League 2 Division One

Derby County U21
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 24, 2026	Reading U21(away)	3-1	Premier League 2 Division One
Aug 18, 2026	FC Halifax Town(away)	2-6	National League Cup
Aug 14, 2026	Hull City U21(home)	1-4	Premier League Cup
Aug 1, 2026	Carlisle(home)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
Apr 27, 2026	Brentford U21(away)	0-2	Professional Development League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Newcastle United U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Derby County U21 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 30, 2024	Derby County U21 1-0 Newcastle United U21	Premier League 2 Division One
Apr 24, 2023	Derby County U21 1-4 Newcastle United U21	Premier League 2 Division One
Aug 26, 2022	Newcastle United U21 4-0 Derby County U21	Premier League 2 Division One

Last archived meeting: Derby County U21 vs Newcastle United U21 on Aug 30, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Newcastle United U21 score 1.5 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Derby County U21 score 1.3 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Newcastle United U21	1.5	2.0	2	8/15	9/15
Derby County U21	1.3	2.3	3	9/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Newcastle United U21 sit 27th in Premier League 2 Division One (0 points from 1 matches) and Derby County U21 sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Derby County U21	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
27	Newcastle United U21	1	0	0	1	1	3	0

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Newcastle United U21 vs Derby County U21?: The Footlab model makes Newcastle United U21 the favourite at 48%, against 22% for a draw and 31% for Derby County U21.
Where and when is Newcastle United U21 vs Derby County U21 played?: Newcastle United U21 vs Derby County U21 is played on February 22, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC), in the Premier League 2 Division One.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.