Oxford United vs AFC Wimbledon: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 24Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Kassam Stadium, Oxford, Oxfordshire
The Footlab model makes Oxford United the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for AFC Wimbledon. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Oxford United vs AFC Wimbledon?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate Oxford United (1,825) and AFC Wimbledon (1,730).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Oxford United have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; AFC Wimbledon have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leyton Orient(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ipswich(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Reading(home) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leyton Orient(away) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Huddersfield(away) | 0-3 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | QPR(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Oxford United win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 AFC Wimbledon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2024 | AFC Wimbledon 2-0 Oxford United | EFL Trophy |
| Jul 23, 2022 | AFC Wimbledon 0-0 Oxford United | Friendlies Clubs |
| Dec 29, 2021 | Oxford United 3-0 AFC Wimbledon | League One |
| Sep 4, 2021 | AFC Wimbledon 3-1 Oxford United | League One |
| Apr 20, 2021 | AFC Wimbledon 2-1 Oxford United | League One |
| Feb 2, 2021 | Oxford United 3-1 AFC Wimbledon | EFL Trophy |
Last archived meeting: AFC Wimbledon vs Oxford United on Jan 9, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Oxford United score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; AFC Wimbledon score 0.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford United | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| AFC Wimbledon | 0.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Oxford United sit 5th in League One (4 points from 2 matches) and AFC Wimbledon sit 23rd (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Oxford United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 23 | AFC Wimbledon | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Oxford United vs AFC Wimbledon?
- The Footlab model makes Oxford United the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for AFC Wimbledon.
- Where and when is Oxford United vs AFC Wimbledon played?
- Oxford United vs AFC Wimbledon is played on January 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Kassam Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.