Paganese vs Afragolese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone GGroup G - 3Kick-off on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Marcello Torre, Pagani
The Footlab model makes Paganese the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Afragolese. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paganese vs Afragolese?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Paganese (1,757) and Afragolese (1,701).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paganese have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Afragolese have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Martina Franca(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 10, 2026 | Città di Fasano(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 3, 2026 | Città di Fasano(away) | 0-6 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Nola 1925(home) | 5-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Gravina(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Francavilla(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Gravina(home) | 0-6 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Real Normanna(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Paganese(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Virtus Francavilla(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Paganese win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Afragolese win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Paganese 1-1 Afragolese | Serie D - Girone H |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Afragolese 2-0 Paganese | Serie D - Girone H |
Last archived meeting: Paganese vs Afragolese on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Paganese score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Afragolese score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paganese | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Afragolese | 1.0 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paganese vs Afragolese?
- The Footlab model makes Paganese the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Afragolese.
- Where and when is Paganese vs Afragolese played?
- Paganese vs Afragolese is played on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Marcello Torre, in the Serie D - Girone G.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.