Panagriniakos vs Aris Filiates: prediction and stats
Gamma Ethniki - Group 6Group 6 - 3Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Mihalis Kousis, Agrinio
The Footlab model makes Panagriniakos the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Aris Filiates. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Panagriniakos vs Aris Filiates?
A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate Panagriniakos (1,487) and Aris Filiates (1,552).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Panagriniakos have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Aris Filiates have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2023 | Pamisos Messini(home) | 1-2 | Cup |
| Apr 30, 2023 | Trikala(home) | 6-3 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 23, 2023 | Asteras Petriti(away) | 1-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 12, 2023 | Chalkis(home) | 5-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 8, 2023 | Zakynthos(away) | 1-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Tilikratis(away) | 0-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Trikala(away) | 0-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Asteras Stavros(home) | 3-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Elassona(home) | 0-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Lamia(away) | 0-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Panagriniakos score 1.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Aris Filiates score 0.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panagriniakos | 1.9 | 1.7 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Aris Filiates | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Panagriniakos vs Aris Filiates?
- The Footlab model makes Panagriniakos the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Aris Filiates.
- Where and when is Panagriniakos vs Aris Filiates played?
- Panagriniakos vs Aris Filiates is played on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Mihalis Kousis, in the Gamma Ethniki - Group 6.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.