Persija vs Persebaya Surabaya: prediction and stats
Liga 1Regular Season - 9Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Patriot, Bekasi
The Footlab model makes Persija the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Persebaya Surabaya. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Persija vs Persebaya Surabaya?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Persija (1,841) and Persebaya Surabaya (1,850).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Persija have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Persebaya Surabaya have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Arema FC(home) | 3-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Persib Bandung(away) | 1-2 | Piala Presiden |
| Aug 1, 2026 | PSMS Medan(home) | 4-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Port FC(away) | 2-2 | Piala Presiden |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Persebaya Surabaya(away) | 0-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Persib Bandung(away) | 1-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Arema FC(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Port FC(home) | 2-1 | Piala Presiden |
| Jul 29, 2026 | PSMS Medan(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Persija(home) | 1-0 | Piala Presiden |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Persija win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Persebaya Surabaya win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 Persija | Piala Presiden |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Persija 3-0 Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Persebaya Surabaya 1-3 Persija | Liga 1 |
Last archived meeting: Persebaya Surabaya vs Persija on Jul 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Persija score 2.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Persebaya Surabaya score 2.1 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persija | 2.1 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Persebaya Surabaya | 2.1 | 0.6 | 10 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Persija sit 3rd in Liga 1 (71 points from 34 matches) and Persebaya Surabaya sit 4th (58 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Persija | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 65 | 29 | 71 |
| 4 | Persebaya Surabaya | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 61 | 35 | 58 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Persija vs Persebaya Surabaya?
- The Footlab model makes Persija the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Persebaya Surabaya.
- Where and when is Persija vs Persebaya Surabaya played?
- Persija vs Persebaya Surabaya is played on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Patriot, in the Liga 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.