Platges Calvià vs Mercadal: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Group 11 - 31Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Polideportivo Municipal de Magalluf, Mallorca
The Footlab model makes Platges Calvià the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Mercadal. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Platges Calvià vs Mercadal?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Platges Calvià (1,773) and Mercadal (1,746).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Platges Calvià have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Mercadal have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Cardassar(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 3, 2026 | Manacor(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Mercadal(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Felanitx(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Binissalem(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Alcúdia(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 3, 2026 | Mallorca II(away) | 0-7 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Llosetense(away) | 1-6 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Platges Calvià(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Formentera(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Platges Calvià win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Mercadal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Mercadal 1-0 Platges Calvià | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Platges Calvià 4-1 Mercadal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Platges Calvià 1-0 Mercadal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Mercadal 1-1 Platges Calvià | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 1, 2024 | Platges Calvià 2-3 Mercadal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Jan 7, 2024 | Mercadal 0-1 Platges Calvià | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
Last archived meeting: Mercadal vs Platges Calvià on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Platges Calvià score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Mercadal score 0.7 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platges Calvià | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Mercadal | 0.7 | 1.9 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Platges Calvià sit 10th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 (42 points from 34 matches) and Mercadal sit 8th (49 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mercadal | 34 | 15 | 5 | 15 | 31 | 44 | 49 |
| 10 | Platges Calvià | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 41 | 42 | 42 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Platges Calvià vs Mercadal?
- The Footlab model makes Platges Calvià the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Mercadal.
- Where and when is Platges Calvià vs Mercadal played?
- Platges Calvià vs Mercadal is played on April 18, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Polideportivo Municipal de Magalluf, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.