Quintanar del Rey vs Illescas: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Group 18 - 3Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio San Marcos, Quintanar del Rey
The Footlab model makes Quintanar del Rey the favourite at 53%, against 28% for a draw and 19% for Illescas. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Quintanar del Rey vs Illescas?
Quintanar del Rey starts as the favourite with a 122-point Elo edge (1,838 vs 1,716).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Quintanar del Rey have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Illescas have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Elche II(away) | 3-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | RSD Alcalá(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Intercity(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Rayo Majadahonda(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Fuenlabrada(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | SS Reyes II(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | CF Talavera(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Manchego(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 3, 2026 | Villarrobledo(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Albacete II(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Quintanar del Rey win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Illescas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2023 | Illescas 2-0 Quintanar del Rey | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 13, 2023 | Quintanar del Rey 2-3 Illescas | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Feb 11, 2023 | Illescas 3-1 Quintanar del Rey | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 9, 2022 | Quintanar del Rey 1-2 Illescas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Feb 13, 2022 | Illescas 0-0 Quintanar del Rey | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 17, 2021 | Quintanar del Rey 3-1 Illescas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
Last archived meeting: Illescas vs Quintanar del Rey on May 21, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Quintanar del Rey score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Illescas score 0.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quintanar del Rey | 1.4 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Illescas | 0.5 | 0.7 | 6 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Illescas | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 21 | 32 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Quintanar del Rey vs Illescas?
- The Footlab model makes Quintanar del Rey the favourite at 53%, against 28% for a draw and 19% for Illescas.
- Where and when is Quintanar del Rey vs Illescas played?
- Quintanar del Rey vs Illescas is played on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio San Marcos, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.