Renfrew vs Gretna 2008: prediction and stats
Football League - Lowland LeagueRegular SeasonKick-off on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Renfrew the favourite at 56%, against 19% for a draw and 25% for Gretna 2008. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Renfrew vs Gretna 2008?
Renfrew starts as the favourite with a 159-point Elo edge (1,527 vs 1,368).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 6 matches in all competitions, Renfrew have 0 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Gretna 2008 have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Caledonian Braves(home) | 1-3 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Troon FC(away) | 0-2 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Celtic II(home) | 3-5 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cumbernauld Colts(away) | 2-2 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Pollok(home) | 1-4 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Clydebank(away) | 1-7 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cumbernauld Colts(home) | 3-3 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kilwinning Rangers(home) | 1-5 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Troon FC(away) | 1-4 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Newton Stewart(home) | 3-0 | Football League - Lowland League |
How many goals should we expect?
Renfrew score 1.5 and concede 3.3 goals per match over their last 6; Gretna 2008 score 1.3 and concede 3.3. The model gives a 81% probability of over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renfrew | 1.5 | 3.3 | 0 | 5/6 | 5/6 |
| Gretna 2008 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 6 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Renfrew sit 30th in Football League - Lowland League (1 points from 6 matches) and Gretna 2008 sit 25th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Gretna 2008 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 4 |
| 30 | Renfrew | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Renfrew vs Gretna 2008?
- The Footlab model makes Renfrew the favourite at 56%, against 19% for a draw and 25% for Gretna 2008.
- Where and when is Renfrew vs Gretna 2008 played?
- Renfrew vs Gretna 2008 is played on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Football League - Lowland League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 81% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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