Salernitana vs Sorrento: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone CGirone C - 1Kick-off on August 24, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Arechi, Salerno
The Footlab model makes Salernitana the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Sorrento. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Salernitana vs Sorrento?
Salernitana starts as the favourite with a 172-point Elo edge (1,877 vs 1,705).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Salernitana have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Sorrento have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Scafatese(home) | 1-2 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sambiase(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 27, 2026 | Union Brescia(away) | 0-2 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 24, 2026 | Union Brescia(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 20, 2026 | Ravenna(away) | 2-0 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Giugliano(away) | 0-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Apr 26, 2026 | AZ Picerno(away) | 0-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Atalanta II(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Potenza(away) | 0-3 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Team Altamura(home) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Salernitana win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Sorrento win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Sorrento 0-2 Salernitana | Serie C - Girone C |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Salernitana 2-1 Sorrento | Serie C - Girone C |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Salernitana 1-1 Sorrento | Coppa Italia Serie C |
Last archived meeting: Sorrento vs Salernitana on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Salernitana score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Sorrento score 0.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salernitana | 1.6 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Sorrento | 0.8 | 1.4 | 5 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Salernitana sit 3rd in Serie C - Girone C (69 points from 38 matches) and Sorrento sit 16th (39 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Salernitana | 38 | 20 | 9 | 9 | 50 | 42 | 69 |
| 16 | Sorrento | 38 | 9 | 12 | 17 | 39 | 55 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Salernitana vs Sorrento?
- The Footlab model makes Salernitana the favourite at 65%, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Sorrento.
- Where and when is Salernitana vs Sorrento played?
- Salernitana vs Sorrento is played on August 24, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Arechi, in the Serie C - Girone C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.