San Marcial vs Casalarreina: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 34Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Ángel de Vicente, Lardero
The Footlab model makes San Marcial the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Casalarreina. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Marcial vs Casalarreina?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate San Marcial (1,693) and Casalarreina (1,627).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Marcial have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Casalarreina have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Anguiano(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 3, 2026 | Haro Deportivo(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Agoncillo(home) | 4-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Villegas(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Calahorra(home) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | La Calzada(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 4, 2025 | Autol(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Tedeón(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | River Ebro(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Vianés(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
How many goals should we expect?
San Marcial score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Casalarreina score 1.3 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Marcial | 1.3 | 1.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Casalarreina | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | San Marcial | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 39 | 59 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Marcial vs Casalarreina?
- The Footlab model makes San Marcial the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Casalarreina.
- Where and when is San Marcial vs Casalarreina played?
- San Marcial vs Casalarreina is played on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Ángel de Vicente, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.