Sanjoanense vs Alpendorada: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 3Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Conde Dias Garcia, São João da Madeira
The Footlab model makes Sanjoanense the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Alpendorada. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sanjoanense vs Alpendorada?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Sanjoanense (1,805) and Alpendorada (1,850).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sanjoanense have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Alpendorada have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Salgueiros(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Beira-Mar(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | São João Ver(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Paredes(home) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Camacha(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Guarda(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Resende(home) | 3-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Salgueiros(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Beira-Mar(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
How many goals should we expect?
Sanjoanense score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Alpendorada score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanjoanense | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Alpendorada | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sanjoanense sit 8th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (2 points from 2 matches) and Alpendorada sit 6th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Alpendorada | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Sanjoanense | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sanjoanense vs Alpendorada?
- The Footlab model makes Sanjoanense the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Alpendorada.
- Where and when is Sanjoanense vs Alpendorada played?
- Sanjoanense vs Alpendorada is played on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Conde Dias Garcia, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.