Santa Amalia vs Moralo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 4Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Santa Amalia, Santa Amalia
The Footlab model makes Moralo the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for Santa Amalia. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santa Amalia vs Moralo?
Moralo starts as the favourite with a 211-point Elo edge (1,877 vs 1,666).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santa Amalia have 1 wins, 2 draws and 12 defeats; Moralo have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Montijo(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 3, 2026 | Moralo(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Diocesano(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Villafranca(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Don Benito(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Badajoz(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 31, 2026 | Badajoz(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 23, 2026 | Azuaga(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 17, 2026 | Azuaga(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| May 10, 2026 | Don Benito(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Santa Amalia win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Moralo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Santa Amalia 0-2 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Moralo 2-0 Santa Amalia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Moralo 0-1 Santa Amalia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Santa Amalia 1-1 Moralo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 |
Last archived meeting: Santa Amalia vs Moralo on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santa Amalia score 0.7 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Moralo score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Amalia | 0.7 | 2.2 | 1 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Moralo | 1.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santa Amalia sit 13th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (34 points from 34 matches) and Moralo sit 3rd (62 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Moralo | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 54 | 32 | 62 |
| 13 | Santa Amalia | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 52 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santa Amalia vs Moralo?
- The Footlab model makes Moralo the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for Santa Amalia.
- Where and when is Santa Amalia vs Moralo played?
- Santa Amalia vs Moralo is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Santa Amalia, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.