São Paulo RS vs EC Novo Horizonte: prediction and stats
Gaúcho - 3Regular Season - 8Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Aldo Dapuzzo, Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul
The Footlab model makes São Paulo RS the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for EC Novo Horizonte. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win São Paulo RS vs EC Novo Horizonte?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate São Paulo RS (1,563) and EC Novo Horizonte (1,565).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, São Paulo RS have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; EC Novo Horizonte have 0, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2025 | Apafut(home) | 1-1 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Apafut(away) | 0-1 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Nov 16, 2025 | São Gabriel(away) | 5-0 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | SC Rio Grande(home) | 1-0 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | FBC Riograndense RS(away) | 1-0 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2025 | Apafut(away) | 0-3 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Nova Prata(home) | 0-3 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Clube 1992(away) | 1-1 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Apafut(home) | 0-0 | Gaúcho - 3 |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Guarani RS(away) | 0-7 | Gaúcho - 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
São Paulo RS score 1.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; EC Novo Horizonte score 0.2 and concede 2.8. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo RS | 1.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| EC Novo Horizonte | 0.2 | 2.8 | 1 | 1/5 | 3/5 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for São Paulo RS vs EC Novo Horizonte?
- The Footlab model makes São Paulo RS the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for EC Novo Horizonte.
- Where and when is São Paulo RS vs EC Novo Horizonte played?
- São Paulo RS vs EC Novo Horizonte is played on October 17, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Aldo Dapuzzo, in the Gaúcho - 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.