Selaya vs Castro: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 1Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Castañal, Selaya
The Footlab model makes Selaya the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Castro. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Selaya vs Castro?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Selaya (1,646) and Castro (1,701).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Selaya have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Castro have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Atlético Albericia(away) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 3, 2026 | Laredo(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Bezana(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Torina(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Barquereño(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Tropezón(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| May 3, 2026 | Cartes(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Revilla(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Guarnizo(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Selaya win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Castro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Castro 3-1 Selaya | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Selaya 0-1 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 30, 2022 | Selaya 1-1 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Jan 9, 2022 | Castro 3-0 Selaya | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Feb 20, 2021 | Castro 0-1 Selaya | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Nov 22, 2020 | Selaya 2-1 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Selaya score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Castro score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selaya | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Castro | 1.2 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Selaya sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (33 points from 34 matches) and Castro sit 11th (38 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Castro | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 44 | 47 | 38 |
| 12 | Selaya | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 32 | 43 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Selaya vs Castro?
- The Footlab model makes Selaya the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Castro.
- Where and when is Selaya vs Castro played?
- Selaya vs Castro is played on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Castañal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.