Shatin vs North District: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 3Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC)Ma On Shan Recreation Ground, Hong Kong
The Footlab model makes North District the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Shatin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shatin vs North District?
North District starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (1,485 vs 1,358).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shatin have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; North District have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Eastern(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Tung Sing(away) | 0-0 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Sham Shui Po(home) | 0-1 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 Sing(home) | 1-1 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Lucky Mile(away) | 6-3 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Wofoo Tai Po(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Eastern District(away) | 2-2 | FA Cup |
| May 10, 2026 | Warriors(home) | 2-4 | Premier League |
| May 1, 2026 | Eastern(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Kitchee(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Shatin win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 North District win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2023 | Shatin 0-4 North District | HKFA 1st Division |
| Nov 12, 2022 | North District 1-2 Shatin | HKFA 1st Division |
| Oct 3, 2021 | North District 1-1 Shatin | HKFA 1st Division |
| Mar 28, 2021 | North District 1-0 Shatin | HKFA 1st Division |
| Sep 8, 2019 | North District 0-3 Shatin | HKFA 1st Division |
Last archived meeting: Shatin vs North District on Feb 19, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Shatin score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; North District score 2.1 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shatin | 1.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| North District | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | North District | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 43 | 39 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shatin vs North District?
- The Footlab model makes North District the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Shatin.
- Where and when is Shatin vs North District played?
- Shatin vs North District is played on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC) at Ma On Shan Recreation Ground, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.