Shatin vs Warriors: prediction and stats
Senior ShieldRound of 16Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC)Ma On Shan Recreation Ground, Hong Kong
The Footlab model makes Warriors the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Shatin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shatin vs Warriors?
Warriors is a heavy favourite: 1,695 Elo points against 1,358 — a 337-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shatin have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Warriors have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Eastern(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Tung Sing(away) | 0-0 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Sham Shui Po(home) | 0-1 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 Sing(home) | 1-1 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Lucky Mile(away) | 6-3 | HKFA 1st Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Kowloon City(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| May 17, 2026 | Wofoo Tai Po(home) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | North District(away) | 4-2 | Premier League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Eastern(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Kitchee(away) | 4-1 | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Shatin score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Warriors score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shatin | 1.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Warriors | 1.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shatin vs Warriors?
- The Footlab model makes Warriors the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Shatin.
- Where and when is Shatin vs Warriors played?
- Shatin vs Warriors is played on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC) at Ma On Shan Recreation Ground, in the Senior Shield.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.