Sonderjyske vs Aarhus: prediction and stats
SuperligaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Sydbank Park, Haderslev
The Footlab model makes Aarhus the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Sonderjyske. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sonderjyske vs Aarhus?
Aarhus starts as the favourite with a 156-point Elo edge (2,074 vs 1,919).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sonderjyske have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Aarhus have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Nordsjaelland(home) | 0-3 | Superliga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Brondby(away) | 2-3 | Superliga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Viborg(home) | 0-0 | Superliga |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Odense(away) | 0-1 | Superliga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | FC Midtjylland(home) | 2-3 | Superliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Odense(home) | 2-2 | Superliga |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Viborg(away) | 1-2 | Superliga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sabah FA(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sabah FA(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sonderjyske win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Aarhus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Aarhus 2-1 Sonderjyske | Superliga |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Sonderjyske 1-1 Aarhus | Superliga |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Aarhus 2-3 Sonderjyske | Superliga |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Aarhus 2-1 Sonderjyske | DBU Pokalen |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Sonderjyske 1-1 Aarhus | Superliga |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Sonderjyske 1-4 Aarhus | Superliga |
How many goals should we expect?
Sonderjyske score 1.2 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Aarhus score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonderjyske | 1.2 | 1.9 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Aarhus | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sonderjyske sit 12th in Superliga (1 points from 5 matches) and Aarhus sit 10th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Aarhus | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sonderjyske vs Aarhus?
- The Footlab model makes Aarhus the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Sonderjyske.
- Where and when is Sonderjyske vs Aarhus played?
- Sonderjyske vs Aarhus is played on February 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Sydbank Park, in the Superliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.