Sorrento vs Crotone: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone CGirone C - 2Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani, Potenza
The Footlab model makes Crotone the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Sorrento. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sorrento vs Crotone?
Crotone starts as the favourite with a 153-point Elo edge (1,878 vs 1,725).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sorrento have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Crotone have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Giugliano(away) | 0-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Apr 26, 2026 | AZ Picerno(away) | 0-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Atalanta II(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Potenza(away) | 0-3 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Team Altamura(home) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cosenza(home) | 0-2 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| May 6, 2026 | Casertana(away) | 1-1 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 3, 2026 | Audace Cerignola(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Latina(home) | 2-5 | Serie C - Girone C |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Casarano(away) | 2-1 | Serie C - Girone C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sorrento win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Crotone win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Sorrento 2-2 Crotone | Serie C - Girone C |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Sorrento 1-3 Crotone | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Crotone 3-1 Sorrento | Serie C - Girone C |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Sorrento 2-1 Crotone | Serie C - Girone C |
| Sep 25, 2024 | Crotone 1-2 Sorrento | Serie C - Girone C |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Sorrento 1-1 Crotone | Serie C - Girone C |
How many goals should we expect?
Sorrento score 0.8 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Crotone score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sorrento | 0.8 | 1.4 | 5 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Crotone | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sorrento sit 16th in Serie C - Girone C (39 points from 38 matches) and Crotone sit 6th (61 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Crotone | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 59 | 40 | 61 |
| 16 | Sorrento | 38 | 9 | 12 | 17 | 39 | 55 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sorrento vs Crotone?
- The Footlab model makes Crotone the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Sorrento.
- Where and when is Sorrento vs Crotone played?
- Sorrento vs Crotone is played on August 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani, in the Serie C - Girone C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.