Spartak Police n/Metují vs Ústí nad Orlicí: prediction and stats
4. liga - Divizie CGroup C - 15Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Hřiště Spartak Police, Police nad Metují-Velká Ledhuje
The Footlab model makes Spartak Police n/Metují the favourite at 45%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Ústí nad Orlicí. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spartak Police n/Metují vs Ústí nad Orlicí?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Spartak Police n/Metují (1,625) and Ústí nad Orlicí (1,663).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spartak Police n/Metují have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Ústí nad Orlicí have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Vysoké Mýto(away) | 0-2 | 4. liga - Divizie C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Přepeře(home) | 0-1 | 4. liga - Divizie C |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Viktoria Žižkov(home) | 2-4 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Trutnov(away) | 2-1 | 4. liga - Divizie C |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Dvůr Králové(away) | 2-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Letohrad(home) | 4-1 | 4. liga - Divizie C |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chrudim II(away) | 6-0 | 4. liga - Divizie C |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Přepeře(away) | 3-4 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Turnov(home) | 2-2 | 4. liga - Divizie C |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Svitavy(home) | 2-1 | Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Spartak Police n/Metují score 1.8 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Ústí nad Orlicí score 2.0 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Police n/Metují | 1.8 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Ústí nad Orlicí | 2.0 | 1.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Spartak Police n/Metují sit 12th in 4. liga - Divizie C (3 points from 3 matches) and Ústí nad Orlicí sit 1st (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ústí nad Orlicí | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Spartak Police n/Metují | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spartak Police n/Metují vs Ústí nad Orlicí?
- The Footlab model makes Spartak Police n/Metují the favourite at 45%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Ústí nad Orlicí.
- Where and when is Spartak Police n/Metují vs Ústí nad Orlicí played?
- Spartak Police n/Metují vs Ústí nad Orlicí is played on November 14, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Hřiště Spartak Police, in the 4. liga - Divizie C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.