Spartans vs Dumbarton: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Ainslie Park Stadium, Edinburgh
The Footlab model makes Spartans the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Dumbarton. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spartans vs Dumbarton?
Spartans starts as the favourite with a 158-point Elo edge (1,611 vs 1,453).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spartans have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Dumbarton have 3, 0 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Elgin City(home) | 3-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stranraer(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 11, 2026 | East Fife(away) | 2-2 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Edinburgh City(home) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Annan Athletic(away) | 4-2 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kelty Hearts(away) | 1-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Edinburgh City(home) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Airdrie United(home) | 1-3 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Clyde(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stirling Albion(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Spartans win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Dumbarton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Dumbarton 3-0 Spartans | League Two |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Spartans 2-0 Dumbarton | League Two |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Dumbarton 1-2 Spartans | League Two |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Spartans 1-2 Dumbarton | League Two |
| May 17, 2024 | Spartans 2-2 Dumbarton | League One |
| May 14, 2024 | Dumbarton 2-1 Spartans | League One |
How many goals should we expect?
Spartans score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Dumbarton score 0.9 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartans | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Dumbarton | 0.9 | 2.7 | 2 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Spartans sit 5th in League Two (5 points from 4 matches) and Dumbarton sit 9th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spartans | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 5 |
| 9 | Dumbarton | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spartans vs Dumbarton?
- The Footlab model makes Spartans the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Dumbarton.
- Where and when is Spartans vs Dumbarton played?
- Spartans vs Dumbarton is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Ainslie Park Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.