Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on February 27, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Merkur Arena, Graz
The Footlab model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for TSV Hartberg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Sturm Graz starts as the favourite with a 141-point Elo edge (2,084 vs 1,944).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sturm Graz have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; TSV Hartberg have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(home) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SCR Altach(home) | 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | TSV Hartberg(away) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | SCR Altach(away) | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Austria Vienna(home) | 0-2 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sturm Graz(home) | 0-2 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 0-1 | Bundesliga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Imst(away) | 3-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Sturm Graz win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 TSV Hartberg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | TSV Hartberg 0-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| May 10, 2026 | TSV Hartberg 2-4 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sturm Graz 0-0 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| Nov 30, 2025 | TSV Hartberg 0-1 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Sturm Graz 1-0 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| Nov 9, 2024 | TSV Hartberg 1-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sturm Graz score 2.2 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; TSV Hartberg score 1.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 2.2 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| TSV Hartberg | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sturm Graz sit 3rd in Bundesliga (8 points from 4 matches) and TSV Hartberg sit 10th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | TSV Hartberg | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
- The Footlab model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for TSV Hartberg.
- Where and when is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg played?
- Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg is played on February 27, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Merkur Arena, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.