Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on February 27, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Merkur Arena, Graz
The Footlab AI model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for TSV Hartberg. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sturm Graz wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,521 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
On Elo ratings, Sturm Graz has 2,101 points and TSV Hartberg 2,013.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sturm Graz
3-4-2-1- 14O. Diakité
- 4J. Gorenc Stankovič
- 19S. Seidl
- 78V. Matoshi
- 39Luca Weinhandl
- 43Jacob Peter Hödl
- 28J. Heil
- 2J. Quarshie
- 30P. Koller
- 23A. Malic
- 22A. Helac
TSV Hartberg
4-2-3-1- 22M. Hoffman
- 4B. Markuš
- 7A. Gattermayer
- 5Y. Diarra
- 95Nikolaus Feldhofer
- 10O. Lukic
- 14P. Komposch
- 16M. Dalpiaz
- 27K. Schopp
- 6Habib Coulibaly
- 91Á. Pécsi
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 09:01 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sturm Graz have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; TSV Hartberg have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Wolfsberger AC(away) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(away) | 2-3 | Cup |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Ried(home) | 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Marseille(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Grazer AK(home) | 6-1 | Bundesliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Grazer AK(away) | 4-0 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Austria Vienna(away) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Wolfsberger AC(home) | 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(away) | 1-3 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(home) | 4-3 | Bundesliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Sturm Graz wins, 1 draw, 0 TSV Hartberg wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | TSV Hartberg 0-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| May 10, 2026 | TSV Hartberg 2-4 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sturm Graz 0-0 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| Nov 30, 2025 | TSV Hartberg 0-1 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Sturm Graz 1-0 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| Nov 9, 2024 | TSV Hartberg 1-2 Sturm Graz | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sturm Graz score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; TSV Hartberg score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| TSV Hartberg | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sturm Graz sit 4th in Bundesliga (19 points from 11 matches) and TSV Hartberg sit 5th (17 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 13 | 19 |
| 5 | TSV Hartberg | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 17 |
A question about Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sturm Graz the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for TSV Hartberg.
- Where and when is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg played?
- Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg is played on February 27, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Merkur Arena, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.