Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United: prediction and stats
Thai League 1Regular Season - 1Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Sukhothai
The Footlab model makes Buriram United the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Sukhothai FC. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United?
Buriram United is a heavy favourite: 1,965 Elo points against 1,584 — a 382-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sukhothai FC have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Buriram United have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Muangthong United(home) | 3-0 | Thai League 1 |
| May 2, 2026 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC(away) | 0-1 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Ratchaburi(home) | 1-2 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Chiangrai United(away) | 1-1 | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Bangkok United(away) | 0-2 | Thai League 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Prachuap(home) | 1-0 | FA Cup |
| May 27, 2026 | Selangor(home) | 2-1 | ASEAN Club Championship |
| May 20, 2026 | Selangor(away) | 1-0 | ASEAN Club Championship |
| May 17, 2026 | Ayutthaya FC(home) | 5-0 | FA Cup |
| May 13, 2026 | Johor Darul Takzim FC(home) | 1-2 | ASEAN Club Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Sukhothai FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Buriram United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Buriram United 6-0 Sukhothai FC | Thai League 1 |
| Dec 24, 2025 | Sukhothai FC 0-1 Buriram United | Thai League 1 |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Sukhothai FC 1-2 Buriram United | Thai League 1 |
| Nov 22, 2024 | Buriram United 2-0 Sukhothai FC | Thai League 1 |
| Feb 14, 2024 | Buriram United 4-0 Sukhothai FC | Thai League 1 |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Sukhothai FC 0-1 Buriram United | Thai League 1 |
Last archived meeting: Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sukhothai FC score 0.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Buriram United score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sukhothai FC | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Buriram United | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sukhothai FC sit 13th in Thai League 1 (28 points from 30 matches) and Buriram United sit 1st (70 points from 30 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buriram United | 30 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 31 | 70 |
| 13 | Sukhothai FC | 30 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 23 | 42 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United?
- The Footlab model makes Buriram United the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Sukhothai FC.
- Where and when is Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United played?
- Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United is played on September 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, in the Thai League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.