Match

Sumsel United vs PSMS Medan: prediction and stats

League Cup IndonesiaGroup stage · Matchday 3Kick-off on December 3, 2026 at 09:00 AM (UTC)

Sumsel UnitedPSMS Medan

The Footlab AI model makes PSMS Medan the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Sumsel United. The most likely score is 1-1. If PSMS Medan wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,579 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 12, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Sumsel United vs PSMS Medan?

PSMS Medan starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (1,774 vs 1,674).

24%24%52%
Sumsel United winDrawPSMS Medan win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Sumsel United vs PSMS Medan

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Sumsel United

4-3-3
  1. 28A. Satria
  2. 22T. Darmawan
  3. 11K. Toyo
  1. 16C. Bhagascara
  2. 10Felipe Ryan
  3. 6T. Pangestu
  1. 25F. Sokoy
  2. 34F. Damara
  3. 23R. Dimas
  4. 4R. Akbar
  1. 81A. Ramadhan

PSMS Medan

4-2-3-1
  1. 10Phillerson
  1. 19P. Putra
  2. 15M. Rangga
  3. 21M. Chan
  4. 69M. Lestusen
  5. 68F. Rahman
  1. 3Ângelo
  2. 5B. Arrahim
  3. 96A. Hutagalung
  4. 2R. Utina
  1. 65R. Nurdin

Computed on November 12, 2026 at 11:45 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sumsel United have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; PSMS Medan have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Sumsel United
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 7, 2026PSIS Semarang(home)1-4Liga 2
Oct 30, 2026Semen Padang(away)0-1Liga 2
Oct 24, 2026Bekasi City(away)1-1Liga 2
Oct 18, 2026Persikad Depok FC(home)2-1Liga 2
Oct 10, 2026Persiku Kudus(home)5-1Liga 2
PSMS Medan
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 7, 2026Persiraja Banda Aceh(home)5-0Liga 2
Nov 3, 2026Persija(home)1-1League Cup Indonesia
Oct 31, 2026PSGC Ciamis(away)2-1Liga 2
Oct 25, 2026PSIS Semarang(home)2-1Liga 2
Oct 17, 2026Semen Padang(away)1-1Liga 2

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Sumsel United win, 1 draw, 2 PSMS Medan wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 13, 2026Sumsel United 2-2 PSMS MedanLiga 2
Feb 14, 2026PSMS Medan 3-1 Sumsel UnitedLiga 2
Nov 24, 2025Sumsel United 2-1 PSMS MedanLiga 2
Sep 28, 2025PSMS Medan 2-0 Sumsel UnitedLiga 2

Last archived meeting: Sumsel United vs PSMS Medan on Sep 13, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Sumsel United score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; PSMS Medan score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Sumsel United1.41.7011/158/15
PSMS Medan1.91.149/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1PSMS Medan1010111

A question about Sumsel United vs PSMS Medan?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Sumsel United vs PSMS Medan?
The Footlab AI model makes PSMS Medan the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Sumsel United.
Where and when is Sumsel United vs PSMS Medan played?
Sumsel United vs PSMS Medan is played on December 3, 2026 at 09:00 AM (UTC), in the League Cup Indonesia.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Sumsel United and PSMS Medan