Tallinna Kalev II vs Tartu Kalev: prediction and stats
Esiliiga BRegular Season - 35Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Kalevi Keskstaadioni kunstmuru, Tallinn
The Footlab model makes Tartu Kalev the favourite at 47%, against 20% for a draw and 33% for Tallinna Kalev II. The most likely score is 2-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tallinna Kalev II vs Tartu Kalev?
Tartu Kalev starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (1,267 vs 1,166).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tallinna Kalev II have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Tartu Kalev have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Tartu Kalev(away) | 1-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Legion(home) | 3-3 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | JK Tabasalu(away) | 1-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Johvi Phoenix(home) | 3-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Narva U21(away) | 0-5 | Esiliiga B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev II(home) | 1-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Luunja(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 0-8 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tulevik(home) | 4-2 | Esiliiga B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Tallinna Kalev II win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Tartu Kalev win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Tartu Kalev 1-1 Tallinna Kalev II | Esiliiga B |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev II 7-2 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Tartu Kalev 1-3 Tallinna Kalev II | Esiliiga B |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Tartu Kalev 2-2 Tallinna Kalev II | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 20, 2024 | Tartu Kalev 4-2 Tallinna Kalev II | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Tartu Kalev vs Tallinna Kalev II on Aug 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tallinna Kalev II score 2.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Tartu Kalev score 3.2 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 84% probability of over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tallinna Kalev II | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| Tartu Kalev | 3.2 | 2.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tallinna Kalev II sit 9th in Esiliiga B (20 points from 25 matches) and Tartu Kalev sit 5th (41 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tartu Kalev | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 65 | 47 | 41 |
| 9 | Tallinna Kalev II | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 50 | 62 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tallinna Kalev II vs Tartu Kalev?
- The Footlab model makes Tartu Kalev the favourite at 47%, against 20% for a draw and 33% for Tallinna Kalev II.
- Where and when is Tallinna Kalev II vs Tartu Kalev played?
- Tallinna Kalev II vs Tartu Kalev is played on November 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Kalevi Keskstaadioni kunstmuru, in the Esiliiga B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 84% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.