The Town vs Tacoma Defiance: prediction and stats
MLS Next ProGroup StageKick-off on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)PayPal Park, San Jose, California
The Footlab model makes The Town the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Tacoma Defiance. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win The Town vs Tacoma Defiance?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate The Town (1,680) and Tacoma Defiance (1,641).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, The Town have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Tacoma Defiance have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Austin II(away) | 0-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Houston Dynamo FC II(away) | 1-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 17, 2026 | St. Louis City II(home) | 0-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Minnesota United II(away) | 1-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Austin II(home) | 1-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Sporting KC II(home) | 4-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Los Angeles FC II(away) | 3-4 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 9, 2026 | North Texas(away) | 1-3 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps II(home) | 4-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Colorado Rapids II(home) | 2-1 | MLS Next Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 The Town win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Tacoma Defiance win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | The Town 0-1 Tacoma Defiance | MLS Next Pro |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Tacoma Defiance 0-0 The Town | MLS Next Pro |
| Sep 28, 2025 | The Town 0-1 Tacoma Defiance | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Tacoma Defiance 4-4 The Town | MLS Next Pro |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Tacoma Defiance 3-1 The Town | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 26, 2024 | The Town 1-1 Tacoma Defiance | MLS Next Pro |
Last archived meeting: The Town vs Tacoma Defiance on Jul 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
The Town score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Tacoma Defiance score 1.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Town | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Tacoma Defiance | 1.8 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The Town sit 8th in MLS Next Pro (33 points from 23 matches) and Tacoma Defiance sit 7th (36 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tacoma Defiance | 24 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 37 | 36 | 36 |
| 5 | The Town | 23 | 11 | 0 | 12 | 40 | 29 | 33 |
| 7 | Tacoma Defiance | 24 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 37 | 36 | 36 |
| 7 | Tacoma Defiance | 23 | 11 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 36 | 33 |
| 8 | The Town | 23 | 11 | 0 | 12 | 40 | 29 | 33 |
| 8 | The Town | 21 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 39 | 27 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for The Town vs Tacoma Defiance?
- The Footlab model makes The Town the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Tacoma Defiance.
- Where and when is The Town vs Tacoma Defiance played?
- The Town vs Tacoma Defiance is played on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at PayPal Park, in the MLS Next Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 28, 2026Inter Miami II1-1Chicago Fire II
- Feb 28, 2026Philadelphia Union II1-0Toronto II
- Feb 28, 2026St. Louis City II4-0Sporting KC II
- Mar 1, 2026Chattanooga1-4Crown Legacy
- Mar 1, 2026Portland Timbers II2-1The Town
- Mar 1, 2026New York RB II4-2Columbus Crew II
- Mar 1, 2026Real Monarchs2-2North Texas
- Mar 1, 2026FC Cincinnati II1-3Connecticut FC