TOGB vs Gemert: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 31Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark Het Hoge Land Veld 1 Berkel, Berkel en Rodenrijs
The Footlab model makes Gemert the favourite at 43%, against 22% for a draw and 35% for TOGB. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win TOGB vs Gemert?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate TOGB (1,710) and Gemert (1,795).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, TOGB have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Gemert have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Poortugaal(home) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | UNA(away) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Lisse(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Noordwijk(away) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 16, 2026 | Groene Ster(home) | 5-1 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | GOES(home) | 2-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rijnvogels(away) | 2-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Helmond Sport(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | GOES(away) | 3-3 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 16, 2026 | SteDoCo(home) | 6-1 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 TOGB win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Gemert win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Gemert 3-0 TOGB | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Aug 31, 2025 | TOGB 3-3 Gemert | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Jan 26, 2025 | TOGB 0-1 Gemert | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Gemert 0-1 TOGB | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Mar 10, 2024 | TOGB 3-0 Gemert | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Gemert 2-1 TOGB | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
How many goals should we expect?
TOGB score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Gemert score 2.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOGB | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Gemert | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
TOGB sit 13th in Derde Divisie (1 points from 2 matches) and Gemert sit 10th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Gemert | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 13 | TOGB | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for TOGB vs Gemert?
- The Footlab model makes Gemert the favourite at 43%, against 22% for a draw and 35% for TOGB.
- Where and when is TOGB vs Gemert played?
- TOGB vs Gemert is played on April 24, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Het Hoge Land Veld 1 Berkel, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.