Toluca vs Necaxa: result 3-1 and analysis
Liga MXApertura - 3Kick-off on August 3, 2026 at 01:10 AM (UTC)Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo
Full time
What was the result of Toluca vs Necaxa?
Toluca won 3-1 on August 3, 2026.
Goalscorers
- 29′I. LópezToluca
- 42′J. CarranzaNecaxa
- 45′E. LópezToluca
- 57′L. JiménezToluca (o.g.)
What had the model predicted before the match?
Before kick-off, the Footlab AI model gave a Toluca win at 64%: prediction correct. Most likely score announced: 2-1. Actual score: 3-1.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Official lineup for Toluca vs Necaxa
The starting elevens fielded at kick-off.
Toluca
4-2-3-1- 21I. López
- 9A. Vega
- 35É. Gutiérrez
- 10J. Angulo
- 5F. Romero
- 29J. Díaz
- 20J. Gallardo
- 25E. López
- 6F. Pereira
- 19S. Simón
- 22L. García
Necaxa
5-3-2- 9J. Carranza
- 11J. Torres
- 10J. Ruiz
- 6D. Leyva
- 8L. Faravelli
- 88C. Vargas
- 3A. Oliveros
- 4A. Peña
- 33R. Martínez
- 99M. Rodríguez
- 12L. Jiménez
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toluca have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Necaxa have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cruz Azul(home) | 1-3 | Campeón de Campeones |
| Jul 22, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(home) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas(away) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| May 31, 2026 | Tigres UANL(home) | 1-1 | CONCACAF Champions League |
| May 10, 2026 | CF Pachuca(away) | 0-2 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Monterrey(home) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Atlante FC(home) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Atlas(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat(away) | 6-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Monarcas(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Toluca wins, 2 draws, 0 Necaxa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Necaxa 0-3 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Jul 13, 2025 | Toluca 3-1 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Toluca 5-2 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Oct 28, 2024 | Necaxa 1-3 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Necaxa 3-3 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Jul 2, 2023 | Toluca 0-0 Necaxa | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Toluca score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Necaxa score 1.4 and concede 1.3.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Necaxa | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toluca sit 2nd in Liga MX (20 points from 11 matches) and Necaxa sit 17th (9 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 15 | 20 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 23 | 9 |
A question about Toluca vs Necaxa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy