Toluca vs Puebla: result 3-1 and analysis
Liga MXApertura - 8Kick-off on September 14, 2025 at 03:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo
Full time
What was the result of Toluca vs Puebla?
Toluca won 3-1 on September 14, 2025.
Goalscorers
- 31′F. PereiraToluca
- 80′J. GallardoToluca
- 86′F. MonárrezPuebla (pen.)
- 89′O. VirgenToluca
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toluca have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Puebla have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2025 | Atletico San Luis(away) | 3-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Cruz Azul(away) | 0-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 21, 2025 | Orlando City SC(home) | 0-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 17, 2025 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(home) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2025 | FC Juarez(away) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2025 | Monterrey(home) | 2-4 | Liga MX |
| Aug 27, 2025 | Badajoz(home) | 0-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 24, 2025 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(away) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 21, 2025 | Seattle Sounders(away) | 0-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Atletico San Luis(home) | 0-2 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Toluca win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Puebla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | Puebla 0-3 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Toluca 5-0 Puebla | Liga MX |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Puebla 1-1 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Nov 1, 2023 | Toluca 0-1 Puebla | Liga MX |
| Jun 24, 2023 | Toluca 1-1 Puebla | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 8, 2023 | Puebla 1-2 Toluca | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Toluca score 2.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Puebla score 0.9 and concede 2.0.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 2.0 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Puebla | 0.9 | 2.0 | 5 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toluca sit 3rd in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Puebla sit 11th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Puebla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| 11 | Puebla | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy