Tormenta vs Union Omaha: prediction and stats
USL League OneGroup StageKick-off on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Tormenta Stadium, Statesboro, Georgia
The Footlab model makes Tormenta the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Union Omaha. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tormenta vs Union Omaha?
A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate Tormenta (1,741) and Union Omaha (1,831).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tormenta have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Union Omaha have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | Spokane Velocity(away) | 0-0 | USL League One |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Texoma(home) | 3-0 | USL League One |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Greenville Triumph(away) | 4-1 | USL League One |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Spokane Velocity(away) | 1-1 | USL League One |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Westchester SC(home) | 3-1 | USL League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sarasota Paradise(home) | 1-1 | USL League One |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Richmond Kickers(home) | 5-1 | USL League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chattanooga Red Wolves(away) | 3-1 | USL League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fort Wayne(away) | 2-0 | USL League One |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Portland Hearts of Pine(away) | 2-1 | USL League One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Tormenta win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Union Omaha win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2025 | Union Omaha 1-2 Tormenta | USL League One |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Tormenta 1-3 Union Omaha | USL League One |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Tormenta 2-3 Union Omaha | USL League One |
| May 5, 2024 | Union Omaha 4-2 Tormenta | USL League One |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Tormenta 0-4 Union Omaha | USL League One |
| Jul 30, 2023 | Union Omaha 3-2 Tormenta | USL League One |
Last archived meeting: Union Omaha vs Tormenta on Jul 18, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Tormenta score 2.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Union Omaha score 2.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tormenta | 2.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Union Omaha | 2.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 24 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tormenta vs Union Omaha?
- The Footlab model makes Tormenta the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Union Omaha.
- Where and when is Tormenta vs Union Omaha played?
- Tormenta vs Union Omaha is played on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Tormenta Stadium, in the USL League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 8, 2026Westchester SC2-3One Knoxville
- Mar 8, 2026Naples2-0Fort Wayne
- Mar 8, 2026Sarasota Paradise0-1Boise
- Mar 8, 2026Alta1-1Richmond Kickers
- Mar 8, 2026TormentavsSpokane Velocity
- Mar 14, 2026NY Cosmos1-3Portland Hearts of Pine
- Mar 14, 2026TormentavsAlta
- Mar 14, 2026Greenville Triumph1-2Chattanooga Red Wolves