Tritium vs Caldiero Terme: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone BGroup B - 16Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale La Rocca, Trezzo sull'Adda
The Footlab model makes Caldiero Terme the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Tritium. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tritium vs Caldiero Terme?
Caldiero Terme starts as the favourite with a 163-point Elo edge (1,708 vs 1,545).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tritium have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Caldiero Terme have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2024 | Pro Palazzolo(home) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Club Milano(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Desenzano Calvina(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Caravaggio(away) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Arconatese(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Varesina(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Vogherese(away) | 6-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Villa Valle(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sondrio(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Brusaporto(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Tritium win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Caldiero Terme win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2024 | Tritium 0-2 Caldiero Terme | Serie D - Girone B |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Caldiero Terme 2-0 Tritium | Serie D - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: Tritium vs Caldiero Terme on Jan 21, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Tritium score 0.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Caldiero Terme score 1.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tritium | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Caldiero Terme | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Caldiero Terme | 34 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 50 | 40 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tritium vs Caldiero Terme?
- The Footlab model makes Caldiero Terme the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Tritium.
- Where and when is Tritium vs Caldiero Terme played?
- Tritium vs Caldiero Terme is played on December 13, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale La Rocca, in the Serie D - Girone B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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