Match

U. San Martin vs Union Comercio: prediction and stats

Segunda DivisiónQuarter-finalsKick-off on November 14, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Hugo Sotil Yerén, Lima

U. San MartinUnion Comercio

The Footlab AI model makes U. San Martin the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Union Comercio. The most likely score is 1-1. If U. San Martin wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win U. San Martin vs Union Comercio?

A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate U. San Martin (1,490) and Union Comercio (1,556).

49%26%25%
U. San Martin winDrawUnion Comercio win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for U. San Martin vs Union Comercio

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

U. San Martin

4-3-3
  1. 70C. López
  2. 18A. Arteaga
  3. 16S. Sanchez
  1. 24K. Peña
  2. 10Y. Oliva
  3. 19I. Chumpitáz
  1. 4Otávio Gut
  2. 17J. Reyes
  3. 5B. Ampuero
  4. 6R. Cuba
  1. 1P. Ynamine

Union Comercio

4-3-3
  1. 99B. Golúz
  2. 10G. Guerrero
  3. 34Alessandro Pinedo
  1. 25E. Páucar
  2. 24J. Navea
  3. 20R. Gómez
  1. 5E. Álvarez
  2. 17D. Vargas
  3. 15Cleyder Vargas
  4. 40Leyto Gavino
  1. 28L. García

Computed on November 7, 2026 at 08:06 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, U. San Martin have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Union Comercio have 5, 5 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

U. San Martin
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 31, 2026Alianza Universidad(away)1-0Segunda División
Oct 25, 2026Carlos A. Mannucci(home)1-2Segunda División
Oct 18, 2026Bentín Tacna Heroica(away)2-1Segunda División
Oct 11, 2026Bentín Tacna Heroica(home)2-0Segunda División
Oct 6, 2026Alianza Universidad(home)2-1Segunda División
Union Comercio
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 31, 2026Minas(home)3-3Segunda División
Oct 26, 2026Molinos El Pirata(away)0-1Segunda División
Oct 18, 2026Ayacucho FC(away)1-1Segunda División
Oct 12, 2026Ayacucho FC(home)5-0Segunda División
Oct 6, 2026Minas(away)1-4Segunda División

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 U. San Martin win, 2 draws, 3 Union Comercio wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 6, 2026Union Comercio 1-0 U. San MartinSegunda División
May 23, 2026U. San Martin 0-1 Union ComercioSegunda División
Jun 1, 2025Union Comercio 1-2 U. San MartinSegunda División
Apr 12, 2025U. San Martin 1-1 Union ComercioSegunda División
Aug 31, 2019U. San Martin 1-2 Union ComercioPrimera División
Mar 16, 2019Union Comercio 0-0 U. San MartinPrimera División

Last archived meeting: Union Comercio vs U. San Martin on Sep 6, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

U. San Martin score 1.6 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Union Comercio score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
U. San Martin1.61.848/1510/15
Union Comercio1.31.065/155/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

U. San Martin sit 5th in Segunda División (24 points from 16 matches) and Union Comercio sit 1st (32 points from 16 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Union Comercio1695219532
5U. San Martin16736261724

A question about U. San Martin vs Union Comercio?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for U. San Martin vs Union Comercio?
The Footlab AI model makes U. San Martin the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Union Comercio.
Where and when is U. San Martin vs Union Comercio played?
U. San Martin vs Union Comercio is played on November 14, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Hugo Sotil Yerén, in the Segunda División.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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