UD da Serra vs Nazarenos: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 22Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo da Portela, Santa Catarina da Serra
The Footlab model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Nazarenos. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UD da Serra vs Nazarenos?
A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate UD da Serra (1,825) and Nazarenos (1,761).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD da Serra have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Nazarenos have 1, 0 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Alverca II(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Naval 1893(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Samora Correir(away) | 2-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Peniche(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | O Elvas(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mortágua(away) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Pacos Ferreira(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Sourense(home) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
UD da Serra score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Nazarenos score 0.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD da Serra | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Nazarenos | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1 | 1/4 | 1/4 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UD da Serra sit 2nd in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (6 points from 2 matches) and Nazarenos sit 13th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | UD da Serra | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Nazarenos | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UD da Serra vs Nazarenos?
- The Footlab model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Nazarenos.
- Where and when is UD da Serra vs Nazarenos played?
- UD da Serra vs Nazarenos is played on March 14, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo da Portela, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.