União Lamas vs Castro Daire: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 26Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Comendador Henrique Amorim, Santa Maria de Lamas
The Footlab model makes União Lamas the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Castro Daire. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win União Lamas vs Castro Daire?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate União Lamas (1,769) and Castro Daire (1,752).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, União Lamas have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Castro Daire have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Ovarense(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Florgrade(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sousense(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sousense(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ovarense(home) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Anadia(home) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Apr 16, 2023 | Leça(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 8, 2023 | Resende(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
How many goals should we expect?
União Lamas score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Castro Daire score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| União Lamas | 0.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Castro Daire | 0.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
União Lamas sit 11th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (1 points from 2 matches) and Castro Daire sit 7th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Castro Daire | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | União Lamas | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for União Lamas vs Castro Daire?
- The Footlab model makes União Lamas the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Castro Daire.
- Where and when is União Lamas vs Castro Daire played?
- União Lamas vs Castro Daire is played on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Comendador Henrique Amorim, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.