Uruguay vs Dominican Republic: prediction and stats
FriendliesFriendly InternationalKick-off on November 17, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Centenario, Montevideo
The Footlab AI model makes Uruguay the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Dominican Republic. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.8% of the 5,238 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 10, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Uruguay vs Dominican Republic?
Uruguay starts as the favourite with a 160-point Elo edge (1,722 vs 1,562).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Uruguay vs Dominican Republic
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Uruguay
4-4-2- 9D. Núñez
- 21F. Viñas
- 20M. Araújo
- 6R. Bentancur
- 18B. Rodríguez
- 17R. Zalazar
- 22J. Piquerez
- 16M. Olivera
- 4R. Araújo
- 2J. Giménez
- 1S. Mele
Dominican Republic
4-2-3-1- 9M. Díaz
- 14Jean Carlos López Moscoso
- 8H. Mörschel
- 19Peter
- 6P. Rosario
- 16D. Flores
- 5N. Dollenmayer
- 23L. de Lucas
- 4Edgar Pujol
- 21Juan Carlos Familia-Castillo
- 1X. Valdez
Computed on November 10, 2026 at 07:33 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Uruguay have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Dominican Republic have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | India(away) | 6-1 | Friendlies |
| Sep 28, 2026 | South Korea(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Japan(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Spain(home) | 0-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Cape Verde Islands(home) | 2-2 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Nicaragua(away) | 2-1 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Haiti(home) | 1-4 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Trinidad and Tobago(away) | 2-1 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Nicaragua(home) | 3-2 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Panama(away) | 2-4 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Uruguay win, 0 draws, 0 Dominican Republic wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2025 | Uruguay 1-0 Dominican Republic | Friendlies |
Last archived meeting: Uruguay vs Dominican Republic on Oct 10, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Uruguay score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Dominican Republic score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uruguay | 1.6 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Dominican Republic | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Uruguay vs Dominican Republic?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Uruguay vs Dominican Republic?
- The Footlab AI model makes Uruguay the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Dominican Republic.
- Where and when is Uruguay vs Dominican Republic played?
- Uruguay vs Dominican Republic is played on November 17, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio Centenario, in the Friendlies.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.