Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums: prediction and stats
VirsligaFinalKick-off on November 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs, Valmiera
The Footlab AI model makes Valmiera / BSS the favourite at 68%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Tukums. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 5,364 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 11, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums?
Valmiera / BSS starts as the favourite with a 220-point Elo edge (1,710 vs 1,490).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Valmiera / BSS
Not enough data to predict the Valmiera / BSS lineup.
Tukums
5-3-2- 27R. Deružinskis
- 19D. Radzenieks
- 10B. Samoilovs
- 5J. Toba
- 6K. Volkovs
- 8R. Reingolcs
- 21D. Valmiers
- 28R. Meļķis
- 30M. Šusts
- 88M. Štāls
- 1S. Vilkovs
Computed on November 11, 2026 at 03:22 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Valmiera / BSS have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat; Tukums have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Skanste(home) | 3-2 | 1. Liga |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(away) | 0-0 | 1. Liga |
| Oct 24, 2026 | JFK Ventspils(home) | 3-0 | 1. Liga |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Tukums II(home) | 2-2 | 1. Liga |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Super Nova 2(home) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Auda(home) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Nov 1, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(away) | 0-2 | Virsliga |
| Oct 24, 2026 | FK Liepaja(away) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Rīgas FS(away) | 0-2 | Virsliga |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Riga(home) | 0-2 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Valmiera / BSS wins, 0 draws, 3 Tukums wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | Valmiera / BSS 2-3 Tukums | Virsliga |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Tukums 3-2 Valmiera / BSS | Virsliga |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Tukums 2-3 Valmiera / BSS | Cup |
| Jun 14, 2024 | Valmiera / BSS 6-1 Tukums | Virsliga |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Tukums 1-2 Valmiera / BSS | Virsliga |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Tukums 3-2 Valmiera / BSS | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums on Nov 9, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Valmiera / BSS score 2.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Tukums score 0.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valmiera / BSS | 2.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Tukums | 0.6 | 1.9 | 1 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tukums | 36 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 45 | 69 | 25 |
A question about Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums?
- The Footlab AI model makes Valmiera / BSS the favourite at 68%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Tukums.
- Where and when is Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums played?
- Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums is played on November 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.