Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC: prediction and stats
Canadian Premier LeagueGroup StageKick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre, Langley, British Columbia
The Footlab model makes Vancouver FC the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for HFX Wanderers FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Vancouver FC (1,654) and HFX Wanderers FC (1,642).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vancouver FC have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; HFX Wanderers FC have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | HFX Wanderers FC(away) | 0-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Atlético Ottawa(away) | 0-4 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pacific FC(home) | 1-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Forge(away) | 1-0 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atlético Ottawa(home) | 3-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Vancouver FC(home) | 1-0 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | York United(away) | 3-4 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atlético Ottawa(away) | 1-2 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Forge(home) | 0-0 | Canadian Premier League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Supra du Quebec(home) | 2-3 | Canadian Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Vancouver FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 HFX Wanderers FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | HFX Wanderers FC 1-0 Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League |
| May 30, 2026 | HFX Wanderers FC 1-0 Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Vancouver FC 0-1 HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Vancouver FC 3-1 HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2025 | HFX Wanderers FC 1-2 Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League |
| Jun 21, 2025 | HFX Wanderers FC 1-0 Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League |
Last archived meeting: HFX Wanderers FC vs Vancouver FC on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vancouver FC score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; HFX Wanderers FC score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver FC | 1.6 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| HFX Wanderers FC | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vancouver FC sit 4th in Canadian Premier League (27 points from 19 matches) and HFX Wanderers FC sit 5th (20 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 22 | 27 |
| 5 | HFX Wanderers FC | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 30 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC?
- The Footlab model makes Vancouver FC the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for HFX Wanderers FC.
- Where and when is Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC played?
- Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre, in the Canadian Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 4, 2026Forge2-0Atlético Ottawa
- Apr 4, 2026Vancouver FC0-1HFX Wanderers FC
- Apr 5, 2026Pacific FC1-2Cavalry FC
- Apr 11, 2026York United2-2HFX Wanderers FC
- Apr 11, 2026Pacific FC2-3Supra du Quebec
- Apr 12, 2026Cavalry FC3-1Atlético Ottawa
- Apr 12, 2026Vancouver FC0-1Forge
- Apr 18, 2026HFX Wanderers FC2-2Pacific FC