Varea vs Alfaro: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Varea, Varea
The Footlab AI model makes Varea the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Alfaro. The most likely score is 1-1. If Varea wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Varea vs Alfaro?
On Elo ratings, Varea has 1,797 points and Alfaro 1,702.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Varea vs Alfaro
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Varea
Not enough data to predict the Varea lineup.
Alfaro
Not enough data to predict the Alfaro lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 09:31 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Varea have 5 wins, 8 draws and 2 defeats; Alfaro have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Agoncillo(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Oyonesa(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | La Calzada(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Pradejón(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | San Marcial(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Casalarreina(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Calahorra(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Anguiano(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Haro Deportivo(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Yagüe(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Varea wins, 2 draws, 2 Alfaro wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2024 | Alfaro 1-1 Varea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Varea 0-2 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Jan 23, 2022 | Varea 0-3 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 12, 2021 | Alfaro 1-1 Varea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Jan 24, 2021 | Varea 1-0 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 25, 2020 | Alfaro 0-3 Varea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
How many goals should we expect?
Varea score 0.8 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Alfaro score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varea | 0.8 | 0.6 | 7 | 6/15 | 1/15 |
| Alfaro | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Varea sit 7th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 (10 points from 6 matches) and Alfaro sit 2nd (13 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alfaro | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 7 | Varea | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 10 |
A question about Varea vs Alfaro?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Varea vs Alfaro?
- The Footlab AI model makes Varea the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Alfaro.
- Where and when is Varea vs Alfaro played?
- Varea vs Alfaro is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Varea, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.