Varea vs Alfaro: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Varea, Varea
The Footlab model makes Varea the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Alfaro. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Varea vs Alfaro?
Varea starts as the favourite with a 124-point Elo edge (1,866 vs 1,742).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Varea have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Alfaro have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Oyonesa(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 17, 2026 | Oyonesa(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 10, 2026 | Oyonesa(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 3, 2026 | Pradejón(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Anguiano(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | Real Unión(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | SD Logroñés(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Náxara(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Tudelano(away) | 1-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Real Zaragoza II(home) | 3-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Varea win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Alfaro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2024 | Alfaro 1-1 Varea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Varea 0-2 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Jan 23, 2022 | Varea 0-3 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 12, 2021 | Alfaro 1-1 Varea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Jan 24, 2021 | Varea 1-0 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 25, 2020 | Alfaro 0-3 Varea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
How many goals should we expect?
Varea score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Alfaro score 1.1 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varea | 0.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Alfaro | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Varea | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 51 | 25 | 73 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Varea vs Alfaro?
- The Footlab model makes Varea the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Alfaro.
- Where and when is Varea vs Alfaro played?
- Varea vs Alfaro is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Varea, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.