Velarde vs Tropezón: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 32Kick-off on April 25, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de La Maruca, Muriedas
The Footlab AI model makes Tropezón the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Velarde. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Velarde vs Tropezón?
Tropezón is a heavy favourite: 1,938 Elo points against 1,581, a 357-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Velarde vs Tropezón
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Velarde
4-3-3- BBorja Menaut
- JJaime Fernández
- ÃÃlvaro Alonso
- JJorge Gómez
- MManuel Cuesta
- VVictor Cagigas
- MMiki Palleiro
- DDiego Guemes
- OOjembarrena
- NNicolás Sainz
- MMarcos Parada
Tropezón
Not enough data to predict the Tropezón lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 09:22 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Velarde have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Tropezón have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sámano(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Cayón(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Guarnizo(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Vimenor(home) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Barquereño(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atlético Mineros(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Castro(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Revilla(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Solares(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Selaya(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Velarde wins, 2 draws, 0 Tropezón wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | Tropezón 1-1 Velarde | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Velarde 1-1 Tropezón | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Velarde score 0.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Tropezón score 1.5 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velarde | 0.6 | 1.9 | 5 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Tropezón | 1.5 | 0.5 | 9 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Velarde sit 16th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (4 points from 6 matches) and Tropezón sit 1st (18 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tropezón | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 18 |
| 16 | Velarde | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 4 |
A question about Velarde vs Tropezón?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Velarde vs Tropezón?
- The Footlab AI model makes Tropezón the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Velarde.
- Where and when is Velarde vs Tropezón played?
- Velarde vs Tropezón is played on April 25, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de La Maruca, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.