Velež vs Čelik: prediction and stats
Premijer LigaRegular Season - 13Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Rođeni, Mostar
The Footlab AI model makes Velež the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Čelik. The most likely score is 1-1. If Velež wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,449 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Velež vs Čelik?
On Elo ratings, Velež has 1,616 points and Čelik 1,545.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Velež vs Čelik
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Velež
4-2-3-1- 19M. Rahimić
- 10D. Salcin
- 7A. Nukić
- 6Rafidine Abdullah
- 80N. Stojanović
- 77A. Bešagić
- 5M. Abdallah
- 8A. Hrkać
- 13A. Omerović
- 87N. Vukasović
- 1F. Ribić
Čelik
4-2-3-1- 99Anes Mašić
- 14A. Hrvanović
- 8Andrés Mohedano
- 88F. Gogić
- 11S. Faraj
- 18O. Šarkić
- 17A. Omic
- 4Kenan Horic
- 15Marin Popovic
- 24H. Šabanović
- 1A. Å utkoviÄ
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 07:45 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Velež have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Čelik have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Sloga Doboj(away) | 1-0 | Premijer Liga |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Zvijezda Gradačac(away) | 1-2 | Cup |
| Oct 25, 2026 | BSK Banja Luka(home) | 2-3 | Premijer Liga |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Siroki Brijeg(home) | 0-0 | Premijer Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Zrinjski(away) | 0-2 | Premijer Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Borac Banja Luka(home) | 2-4 | Premijer Liga |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Proleter Dvorovi(away) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Siroki Brijeg(away) | 0-0 | Premijer Liga |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Zrinjski(home) | 0-3 | Premijer Liga |
| Oct 11, 2026 | FK Sarajevo(home) | 0-0 | Premijer Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Velež win, 0 draws, 2 Čelik wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | Čelik 3-0 Velež | Premijer Liga |
| Oct 25, 2019 | Čelik 0-2 Velež | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 3, 2019 | Velež 1-2 Čelik | Premijer Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Velež score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Čelik score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velež | 0.7 | 1.5 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Čelik | 1.3 | 1.4 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Velež sit 8th in Premijer Liga (11 points from 11 matches) and Čelik sit 9th (10 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Velež | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 11 |
| 9 | Čelik | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 10 |
A question about Velež vs Čelik?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Velež vs Čelik?
- The Footlab AI model makes Velež the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Čelik.
- Where and when is Velež vs Čelik played?
- Velež vs Čelik is played on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Rođeni, in the Premijer Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.