Virtus Bolzano vs Luparense: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone CGroup C - 20Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Campo Calcio Righi, Bozen
The Footlab model makes Luparense the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Virtus Bolzano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Virtus Bolzano vs Luparense?
Luparense starts as the favourite with a 117-point Elo edge (1,737 vs 1,620).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Virtus Bolzano have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Luparense have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Modena(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 5, 2024 | Campodarsego(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone C |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Mori Santo Stefano(away) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone C |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Portogruaro(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone C |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Adriese(home) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cittadella(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Este(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone C |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Vigasio(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone C |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Conegliano(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Mestre(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Virtus Bolzano win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Luparense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2024 | Virtus Bolzano 1-2 Luparense | Serie D - Girone C |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Luparense 3-1 Virtus Bolzano | Serie D - Girone C |
| Mar 12, 2023 | Luparense 3-0 Virtus Bolzano | Serie D - Girone C |
| Nov 6, 2022 | Virtus Bolzano 3-2 Luparense | Serie D - Girone C |
Last archived meeting: Virtus Bolzano vs Luparense on Jan 28, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Virtus Bolzano score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Luparense score 1.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Bolzano | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Luparense | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Luparense | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 36 | 39 | 43 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Virtus Bolzano vs Luparense?
- The Footlab model makes Luparense the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Virtus Bolzano.
- Where and when is Virtus Bolzano vs Luparense played?
- Virtus Bolzano vs Luparense is played on January 17, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Campo Calcio Righi, in the Serie D - Girone C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.