Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Riisvangen Stadion, Århus
The Footlab model makes Aarhus Fremad the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Esbjerg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Aarhus Fremad (1,855) and Esbjerg (1,833).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aarhus Fremad have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Esbjerg have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FC Fredericia(away) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hillerød(away) | 1-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 8, 2026 | HB Koge(home) | 3-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Ringkøbing(away) | 4-0 | DBU Pokalen |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Aalborg(home) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Vejle(away) | 2-4 | 1. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hobro(home) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Hvidovre(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Bogense(away) | 6-0 | DBU Pokalen |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hillerød(away) | 3-2 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Aarhus Fremad win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Esbjerg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Esbjerg 2-0 Aarhus Fremad | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Aarhus Fremad 0-1 Esbjerg | 1. Division |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Esbjerg 1-1 Aarhus Fremad | 1. Division |
| May 18, 2024 | Aarhus Fremad 2-0 Esbjerg | 2. Division |
| Apr 26, 2024 | Esbjerg 0-1 Aarhus Fremad | 2. Division |
| Mar 24, 2024 | Esbjerg 2-2 Aarhus Fremad | 2. Division |
Last archived meeting: Esbjerg vs Aarhus Fremad on Jul 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aarhus Fremad score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Esbjerg score 1.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus Fremad | 1.5 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Esbjerg | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aarhus Fremad sit 5th in 1. Division (8 points from 5 matches) and Esbjerg sit 9th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aarhus Fremad | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
| 9 | Esbjerg | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg?
- The Footlab model makes Aarhus Fremad the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Esbjerg.
- Where and when is Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg played?
- Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg is played on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Riisvangen Stadion, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.