AD Carmelita vs Guadalupe FC: prediction and stats
Liga de AscensoRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Rafael Bolaños, Alajuela
The Footlab model makes AD Carmelita the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Guadalupe FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AD Carmelita vs Guadalupe FC?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate AD Carmelita (1,499) and Guadalupe FC (1,533).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AD Carmelita have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Guadalupe FC have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Guadalupe FC(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Futbol Consultants Moravia(home) | 1-1 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Santa Ana(home) | 2-3 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 2, 2026 | CS Uruguay(away) | 2-2 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Aserri FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | AD Carmelita(home) | 0-1 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Aserri FC(home) | 0-2 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC(away) | 2-2 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Futbol Consultants Moravia(away) | 2-1 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Apr 26, 2026 | CS Cartagines(home) | 0-5 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 AD Carmelita win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Guadalupe FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Guadalupe FC 0-1 AD Carmelita | Liga de Ascenso |
| Mar 27, 2019 | Guadalupe FC 1-1 AD Carmelita | Primera División |
| Feb 3, 2019 | AD Carmelita 4-1 Guadalupe FC | Primera División |
| Nov 4, 2018 | Guadalupe FC 2-1 AD Carmelita | Primera División |
| Sep 9, 2018 | AD Carmelita 3-0 Guadalupe FC | Primera División |
| Mar 24, 2018 | Guadalupe FC 2-0 AD Carmelita | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Guadalupe FC vs AD Carmelita on Aug 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AD Carmelita score 1.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Guadalupe FC score 0.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Carmelita | 1.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Guadalupe FC | 0.6 | 1.9 | 2 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AD Carmelita sit 9th in Liga de Ascenso (5 points from 4 matches) and Guadalupe FC sit 10th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | AD Carmelita | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| 10 | Guadalupe FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AD Carmelita vs Guadalupe FC?
- The Footlab model makes AD Carmelita the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Guadalupe FC.
- Where and when is AD Carmelita vs Guadalupe FC played?
- AD Carmelita vs Guadalupe FC is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Rafael Bolaños, in the Liga de Ascenso.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.