Municipal Grecia vs Aserri FC: prediction and stats
Liga de AscensoRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca, San José
The Footlab model makes Municipal Grecia the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Aserri FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Municipal Grecia vs Aserri FC?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Municipal Grecia (1,542) and Aserri FC (1,465).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Municipal Grecia have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Aserri FC have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Aserri FC(away) | 2-3 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Santa Cruz FC(away) | 2-1 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Quepos Cambute(home) | 2-0 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Apr 12, 2026 | AD Sarchí(away) | 1-1 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Quepos Cambute(home) | 3-2 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Municipal Grecia(home) | 3-2 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC(home) | 1-1 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Quepos Cambute(away) | 1-2 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guadalupe FC(away) | 2-0 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Santa Ana(away) | 0-1 | Liga de Ascenso |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Municipal Grecia win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Aserri FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Aserri FC 3-2 Municipal Grecia | Liga de Ascenso |
Last archived meeting: Aserri FC vs Municipal Grecia on Aug 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Municipal Grecia score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Aserri FC score 1.1 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Municipal Grecia | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Aserri FC | 1.1 | 2.0 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Municipal Grecia sit 5th in Liga de Ascenso (6 points from 3 matches) and Aserri FC sit 4th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aserri FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 5 | Municipal Grecia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Municipal Grecia vs Aserri FC?
- The Footlab model makes Municipal Grecia the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Aserri FC.
- Where and when is Municipal Grecia vs Aserri FC played?
- Municipal Grecia vs Aserri FC is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca, in the Liga de Ascenso.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.