Agios Matthaios vs Aris Filiates: prediction and stats
Gamma Ethniki - Group 6Group 6 - 1Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Dimotiko Gipedo Agios Mattheos, Agios Mattheos
The Footlab model makes Aris Filiates the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Agios Matthaios. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Agios Matthaios vs Aris Filiates?
Aris Filiates starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,551 vs 1,427).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Agios Matthaios have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Aris Filiates have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2022 | Asteras Kalirachis(away) | 1-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Apr 3, 2022 | Iraklis Ampelokipon(home) | 2-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Mar 30, 2022 | Poseidon Nea Michaniona(home) | 2-3 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Mar 26, 2022 | Makedonikos Neapolis(away) | 0-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Mar 23, 2022 | Lefkimmi(home) | 0-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Tilikratis(away) | 0-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Trikala(away) | 0-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Asteras Stavros(home) | 3-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Elassona(home) | 0-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Lamia(away) | 0-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Agios Matthaios score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Aris Filiates score 0.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agios Matthaios | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Aris Filiates | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Agios Matthaios vs Aris Filiates?
- The Footlab model makes Aris Filiates the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Agios Matthaios.
- Where and when is Agios Matthaios vs Aris Filiates played?
- Agios Matthaios vs Aris Filiates is played on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Dimotiko Gipedo Agios Mattheos, in the Gamma Ethniki - Group 6.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.