Agoncillo vs Varea: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 23Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio San Roque, Agoncillo
The Footlab AI model makes Varea the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Agoncillo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Varea wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,398 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Agoncillo vs Varea?
Varea starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,841 vs 1,718).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Agoncillo vs Varea
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Agoncillo
Not enough data to predict the Agoncillo lineup.
Varea
Not enough data to predict the Varea lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 02:31 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Agoncillo have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Varea have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Varea(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Vianés(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Casalarreina(away) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Calahorra(home) | 3-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Anguiano(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Agoncillo(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Oyonesa(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | La Calzada(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Pradejón(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | San Marcial(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Agoncillo wins, 1 draw, 5 Varea wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Varea 1-0 Agoncillo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Varea 3-1 Agoncillo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Agoncillo 0-1 Varea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 11, 2025 | Agoncillo 2-2 Varea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Varea 3-2 Agoncillo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Feb 19, 2023 | Varea 2-1 Agoncillo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
How many goals should we expect?
Agoncillo score 1.8 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Varea score 0.8 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agoncillo | 1.8 | 1.8 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Varea | 0.8 | 0.6 | 7 | 6/15 | 1/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Agoncillo sit 9th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 (8 points from 6 matches) and Varea sit 7th (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Varea | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Agoncillo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 8 |
A question about Agoncillo vs Varea?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Agoncillo vs Varea?
- The Footlab AI model makes Varea the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Agoncillo.
- Where and when is Agoncillo vs Varea played?
- Agoncillo vs Varea is played on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio San Roque, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.