Alfaro vs Casalarreina: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 · Matchday 23Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Molineta, Alfaro
The Footlab AI model makes Alfaro the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Casalarreina. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 5,999 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alfaro vs Casalarreina?
Alfaro starts as the favourite with a 230-point Elo edge (1,875 vs 1,645).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alfaro vs Casalarreina
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alfaro
Not enough data to predict the Alfaro lineup.
Casalarreina
Not enough data to predict the Casalarreina lineup.
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 08:31 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alfaro have 9 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats; Casalarreina have 5, 0 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Berceo(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Comillas(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Varea(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Vianés(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Casalarreina(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Yagüe(home) | 3-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Calahorra(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Anguiano(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Haro Deportivo(away) | 1-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Alfaro(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Alfaro wins, 0 draws, 2 Casalarreina wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Casalarreina 0-1 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Mar 29, 2024 | Casalarreina 1-2 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Alfaro 1-5 Casalarreina | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Mar 13, 2022 | Casalarreina 0-1 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 31, 2021 | Alfaro 1-0 Casalarreina | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Nov 16, 2019 | Casalarreina 2-1 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
Last archived meeting: Casalarreina vs Alfaro on Oct 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alfaro score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Casalarreina score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfaro | 1.4 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Casalarreina | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alfaro sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 (22 points from 10 matches) and Casalarreina sit 18th (3 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Alfaro | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 22 |
| 18 | Casalarreina | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 27 | 3 |
A question about Alfaro vs Casalarreina?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alfaro vs Casalarreina?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alfaro the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Casalarreina.
- Where and when is Alfaro vs Casalarreina played?
- Alfaro vs Casalarreina is played on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Molineta, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.