Aktobe Jas vs Tobol 2: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 24Kick-off on October 8, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Stadion Munayşı, Aktobe
The Footlab model makes Aktobe Jas the favourite at 48%, against 20% for a draw and 32% for Tobol 2. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aktobe Jas vs Tobol 2?
A very open match: only 88 Elo points separate Aktobe Jas (1,148) and Tobol 2 (1,235).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aktobe Jas have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Tobol 2 have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Yelimay Semey 2(away) | 5-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Shakhter Karagandy(home) | 1-6 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Ekibastuz(home) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Kaspij Aktau 2(away) | 1-6 | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Sport Academy Kairat(home) | 0-4 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Khan Tengri(home) | 3-4 | 1. Division |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Astana II(away) | 4-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Arys(away) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Shakhter Karagandy(home) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Turan Turkistan(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Aktobe Jas win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Tobol 2 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | Tobol 2 5-5 Aktobe Jas | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Aktobe Jas score 1.9 and concede 3.3 goals per match over their last 15; Tobol 2 score 1.9 and concede 2.8. The model gives a 81% probability of over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aktobe Jas | 1.9 | 3.3 | 0 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Tobol 2 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aktobe Jas sit 11th in 1. Division (20 points from 19 matches) and Tobol 2 sit 14th (10 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Aktobe Jas | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 34 | 60 | 20 |
| 14 | Tobol 2 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 31 | 52 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aktobe Jas vs Tobol 2?
- The Footlab model makes Aktobe Jas the favourite at 48%, against 20% for a draw and 32% for Tobol 2.
- Where and when is Aktobe Jas vs Tobol 2 played?
- Aktobe Jas vs Tobol 2 is played on October 8, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Stadion Munayşı, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 81% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.