Shakhter Karagandy vs Akademiya Ontustik: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 24Kick-off on October 8, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Stadion Shakhter, Karaganda
The Footlab model makes Shakhter Karagandy the favourite at 78%, against 14% for a draw and 7% for Akademiya Ontustik. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shakhter Karagandy vs Akademiya Ontustik?
Shakhter Karagandy starts as the favourite with a 205-point Elo edge (1,534 vs 1,329).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shakhter Karagandy have 14 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats; Akademiya Ontustik have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Astana II(home) | 4-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Aktobe Jas(away) | 6-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Kaspij Aktau 2(home) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Tobol 2(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Arys(home) | 4-1 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Ekibastuz(home) | 3-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Sport Academy Kairat(away) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Khan Tengri(home) | 3-1 | 1. Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Taraz(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Astana II(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Shakhter Karagandy win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Akademiya Ontustik win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | Akademiya Ontustik 1-2 Shakhter Karagandy | 1. Division |
| Sep 25, 2025 | Akademiya Ontustik 0-2 Shakhter Karagandy | 1. Division |
| Jun 27, 2025 | Shakhter Karagandy 4-1 Akademiya Ontustik | 1. Division |
Last archived meeting: Akademiya Ontustik vs Shakhter Karagandy on Jul 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Shakhter Karagandy score 2.8 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Akademiya Ontustik score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhter Karagandy | 2.8 | 0.5 | 11 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Akademiya Ontustik | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shakhter Karagandy sit 1st in 1. Division (52 points from 19 matches) and Akademiya Ontustik sit 4th (33 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhter Karagandy | 19 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 55 | 7 | 52 |
| 4 | Akademiya Ontustik | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 25 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shakhter Karagandy vs Akademiya Ontustik?
- The Footlab model makes Shakhter Karagandy the favourite at 78%, against 14% for a draw and 7% for Akademiya Ontustik.
- Where and when is Shakhter Karagandy vs Akademiya Ontustik played?
- Shakhter Karagandy vs Akademiya Ontustik is played on October 8, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Stadion Shakhter, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.