Al-Nassr vs Abha: prediction and stats
Pro LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Riyadh
The Footlab model makes Al-Nassr the favourite at 67%, against 19% for a draw and 14% for Abha. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al-Nassr vs Abha?
Al-Nassr is a heavy favourite: 2,127 Elo points against 1,789 — a 338-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al-Nassr have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Abha have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Riyadh(away) | 4-0 | Pro League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Al Diriyah(away) | 4-1 | King's Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Al-Fateh(home) | 3-0 | Pro League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Almeria(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Al Orubah(away) | 0-0 | King's Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Al-Hazm(home) | 1-2 | Pro League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Rizespor(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Sharjah FC(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 13, 2026 | Al-Raed(away) | 1-5 | Division 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Al-Nassr win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Abha win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2024 | Abha 0-8 Al-Nassr | Pro League |
| Oct 6, 2023 | Al-Nassr 2-2 Abha | Pro League |
| Mar 18, 2023 | Al-Nassr 2-1 Abha | Pro League |
| Mar 14, 2023 | Al-Nassr 3-1 Abha | King's Cup |
| Oct 7, 2022 | Abha 0-3 Al-Nassr | Pro League |
| Feb 26, 2022 | Al-Nassr 2-1 Abha | Pro League |
How many goals should we expect?
Al-Nassr score 2.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Abha score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Nassr | 2.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Abha | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al-Nassr sit 1st in Pro League (6 points from 2 matches) and Abha sit 13th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Nassr | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Abha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al-Nassr vs Abha?
- The Footlab model makes Al-Nassr the favourite at 67%, against 19% for a draw and 14% for Abha.
- Where and when is Al-Nassr vs Abha played?
- Al-Nassr vs Abha is played on September 9, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, in the Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.